Saturday, May 10, 2014

Unemployment forecast

This is my own employment forecast for the US. The market will continue to get stronger as we continue through the year. Based on how the unemployment keeps dropping I'm forecasting around 5% by early December at the latest. There will still be soft spots here and there. Sorry, that's what I foresee. This is the chart I'm partially basing my projection on and just looking at it you can see readily the extrapolation I'm making. The chart itself I stole from the Department of Labor.

Please note that the chart only includes present unemployment claims and doesn't include anyone that's ran out of unemployment.


On one of the job search sites I personally like,, has had 706,395 new jobs posted in the last 7 days. Now a number of them are fluff you don't want but there's at least 50,000 that isn't.


This was the job possibilities sent in a single email to me today. I haven't seen this many openings listed in one email since about the middle of 2007. Now you can see from looking through them a number of them are junk but about half is good opportunities. Probably a couple of them are feelers also. A hiring manager is trying to find out how the job market is.

Manager Security Solutions   Verizon

Customer Service Representative   Xerox Corporation

Medication Care Manager   Sunrise Senior Living

Salon Manager   Great Clips

Stylist   Great Clips

Rep-Sales Ops-Retail (part-time position, specific to District MT02 only)
Verizon Wireless

Customer Care Supervisor   Xerox Corporation

Mail Clerk   Randstad Staffing

Benefits Coordinator   Prominent Point Dental Group and Orthodontics

**Solutions Specialist**   Verizon Wireless

Pizza Hut Team Member   Pizza Hut

Pizza Hut Delivery Driver   Pizza Hut

Customer Service - Full Time   I L I F F

Assistant Store Manager
Vitamin Shoppe Industries Inc

Customer Sales and Service Job

Kids Club Attendant Job
Gold's Gym

Store Manager Job

Automotive Service Advisor / Ford Customer Service Writer / Auto Sales
Medved Ford

Administrative Support / Customer Service Opportunities
Army Local Campaign

Customer Service Call Center Representative
Progressive Insurance

Full Time - Customer Service/ Technical Support Agents Start 5/19

Retail Store Management Trainee
Firestone Complete Auto Care

Sales Coordinator 2

Assistant Store Manager Woodland Park Colorado
Family Dollar

Experienced Professional Fundraisers Wanted!
United Support, LLC

Business Development Call Center Representative - Home-Based
Wheelhouse Enterprises

Experienced Outside Sales Representatives
Smart Choice Payments

Poker Room Supervisor
Triple Crown Casinos

Store Manager
The Vitamin Shoppe

Team Member
Triple Crown Casinos

Team Member
Taco Bell

Restaurant Assistant Manager
Taco Bell

store manager

Store Seasonal Employee - Front End Customer Service Associate

Cashier Team Member
Target Stores

Manager, Customer Care Job
Time Warner Cable Company

Customer Service Representative Fountain Colorado
Family Dollar

Customer Account Representative, Now Accepting Applications for Future Openings


Customer Service Representative
Arise Virtual Solutions

"Store Seasonal Employee - Front End Customer Service Associate"

" Customer Service Associate II-Weekdays"

" Customer Service Associate"
Best Buy

Store Seasonal Employee - Front End Customer Service Associate

Customer Service /Deliveries
Home Depot

Customer Service Supervisor
Burlington Coat Factory

Customer Service Representative

Customer Service Representative

Customer Service Representative

Customer Service Associate
Best Buy

Admin Assistant - Online Research and Customer Service
Sears Holdings

Customer Service Associate II-Weekdays

Automotive Customer Service Advisor job in
Sears Holdings

Satellite TV Technician/Installer - Springfield
Dish Network

Satellite TV Technician/Installer
Dish Network

Call Center Operator wanted for a customer services company in
Tip Top Recruiting

"Automotive Customer Service Advisor"

"Lead Mentor Refrigeration Service Technician"

Service Desk Team Member

Food Service Worker

Food Service Team Member

Part-Time Full Service Associate

Food Service Worker - Floater

Food Service Worker

Food Service Worker - Part time

Client Services Representative
Credit Service Company, Inc.

Work From Home Escalation Support Trai
Enterprise Holdings EAN Services, LLC

Truck Driver - Hiker/ Vehicle Transporter/CDL - Part Time
Penske Logistics Corporation

Part Time Animal Nutrition Consultant (Pet - Retail)
Chuck Latham Associates

Sr. Unix Ops Manager

Retail Sales Leader, Bilingual

Retail Sales Representative
Cricket Wireless

"Store Seasonal Employee: Front End"

Retail Sales Teammate - PT
Bridgestone Americas, Inc

Head Cashier

Sprint Retail Sales Job

Retail Sales Consultant

Store Seasonal Employee: Front End

Assistant Deli Manager Job
Sprouts Farmers Market

Sales Associate


Now the unemployment index I like better is the U-6 rate. It also includes those who have run out of unemployment. Many of those who are working part time and would like to work full time are also included. 

I stole this image from Portal Seven.
As you can readily see it's headed downwards also. Now I do not foresee it coming all the way down to 7% again. There's been a few societal changes since 2001. A lot of families are wanting to have a single breadwinner only. For my household in fact we rely on my income only. Basically I'm forecasting it to hit about 9-10% early next year which I think will be the new bottom.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Thank you very much for your comment.